Betting on sports always involves risks, because there’s never a guarantee of success. Our experts present you with the best odds and provide top tips, but even they can’t predict the outcome with certainty. We always indicate who the favourite is—the person or team we believe has the best chance of winning. Especially in the final, where a tournament victory is on the line, the role of the favourite is extremely important. But how often do favourites actually win? Read all about it in this article.
Favourites: on paper vs. on the pitch
In a final, the favourite is usually easy to identify: the team with the strongest squad, the most experience, or the best recent form. Yet it often turns out that being the favourite doesn’t equal guaranteed victory. Especially in finals, where the pressure is immense and a single moment can decide everything. Below are several examples where the role of favourite was either confirmed—or completely turned on its head.
UEFA Champions League 2020: Paris SG vs. Bayern Munich
On paper, Bayern Munich were slight favourites, even though Paris Saint-Germain had reached their first-ever Champions League final with a star-studded squad featuring Neymar and Mbappé. The betting odds were fairly balanced, with a slight edge for the Germans due to their dominant goal scoring in the knockout phase. In the end, Bayern won 1-0 thanks to a goal by Kingsley Coman. In this case, the favourite did indeed take the trophy home—but the margin was narrow.
UEFA Champions League 2021: Manchester City vs. Chelsea
This one told a different story. Manchester City were clear favourites according to almost every bookmaker. Pep Guardiola’s team had just completed a dominant Premier League campaign and were seen as tactically superior. Chelsea, who had changed managers mid-season (bringing in Thomas Tuchel), were considered underdogs.
However, Chelsea won 1-0 with a goal by Kai Havertz, and Manchester City couldn’t find an answer to Tuchel’s solid defensive setup. For punters who dared to bet against the favourite, it was a very profitable night.
UEFA Europa League 2022: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Rangers FC
In this final, which didn’t feature any of Europe’s absolute giants, Eintracht Frankfurt were considered slight favourites—mainly due to their impressive performances earlier in the tournament, including a win over Barcelona in the semi-finals. Rangers were seen as disciplined but less talented.
After a 1-1 draw, Frankfurt eventually won in a penalty shoot-out. While the favourite technically won here, it again shows how thin the line is between victory and defeat. In a shoot-out, the outcome is almost impossible to predict.
UEFA Champions League 2022: Real Madrid vs. Liverpool
Liverpool were labelled the favourite for this final. Despite Real Madrid’s rich history in the Champions League, the English side were in better form, had superior expected goals statistics, and appeared tactically more complete.
Yet it was Real Madrid who lifted the trophy, thanks to an outstanding performance by goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and a goal by Vinícius Júnior.
UEFA Europa League: Sevilla vs. AS Roma
Sevilla is known as the king of the Europa League, with multiple title wins under their belt. Nevertheless, AS Roma—managed by José Mourinho—were seen as slight favourites before kick-off. The odds were close, but many bettors trusted Mourinho’s track record in finals.
The match ended in a draw and was ultimately decided by penalties—in Sevilla’s favour.
What does this mean for you?
These examples show that being the favourite in a European final often reflects public expectations more than actual outcomes. While favourites do tend to win more often than not, the margin is often small—especially in finals where pressure can override tactics or form.
Here are some useful tips:
- Pay attention to the odds, but think critically: Favourites automatically receive lower odds, but that doesn’t always reflect their true chance of winning. Many unpredictable elements can affect the result. Odds are a guide—but always consider what the final means for your team personally.
- Finals are unique: The context of a final—extra tension, the spotlight, possibly even a hostile crowd—makes it harder to rely solely on stats and form. It helps to do your own analysis, beyond the basics.
- Underdog bets can be valuable: Betting on the underdog can yield surprising results. Especially in finals that are expected to be tight, where extra time or penalties are possible, the underdog might just pull off an upset.
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